Humanity in 'Race Against Time' on AI: UN, Tech Xplore, May 30, 2024
This article from Tech Xplore discusses the urgent warnings from the United Nations about the existential risks posed by AI. During the AI for Good Global Summit, experts emphasized the critical need for rapid and effective AI governance to prevent catastrophic outcomes. OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, highlighted cybersecurity as a primary concern, but also mentioned that AI's power might necessitate a fundamental change in societal structures. The article underscores the importance of international cooperation to establish protections and regulations that keep pace with technological advancements, aiming to ensure AI's benefits while mitigating its risks.
Navigating Humanity's Greatest Challenge Yet: Experts Debate the Existential Risks of AI, Tim McMillan, The Debrief, March 15, 2024
This article from The Debrief features a panel discussion among AI experts debating the existential risks posed by artificial intelligence. Dr. Roman V. Yampolskiy emphasizes the uncontrollability of superintelligent AI and the potential for catastrophic outcomes. Dr. Nidhi Kalra and Dr. Jonathan Welburn argue that while AI could exacerbate current global challenges, humanity has historically overcome significant obstacles. Dr. Benjamin Boudreaux and Dr. Jeff Alstott express concerns about AI's capacity to end meaningful human activities and its potential misuse in bioweapons and other harmful applications. The experts agree on the necessity of independent, high-quality research and comprehensive policy interventions to manage AI's risks and enhance its benefits for humanity.
AI Could Pose 'Extinction-Level' Threat to Humans, State Dept.-Commissioned Report Warns, Matt Egan, CNN, March 12, 2024
A new report commissioned by the US State Department warns of the "catastrophic" national security risks posed by rapidly evolving artificial intelligence (AI), stating that the most advanced AI systems could potentially pose an "extinction-level threat to the human species." The report, released by Gladstone AI, was based on interviews with over 200 people, including executives from leading AI companies, cybersecurity researchers, weapons of mass destruction experts, and national security officials. The findings highlight two central dangers: the potential for advanced AI systems to be weaponized and inflict irreversible damage, and the risk of AI labs losing control of the systems they are developing. The report calls for dramatic steps to confront these threats, such as launching a new AI agency, imposing emergency regulatory safeguards, and limiting the computer power used to train AI models. Gladstone AI's CEO, Jeremie Harris, noted that competitive pressures are pushing companies to prioritize AI development over safety and security, raising concerns about the potential theft and weaponization of advanced AI systems against the United States. The report also cites warnings from prominent figures in the AI industry, such as Geoffrey Hinton, about the existential risks posed by AI. The development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) is seen as a primary driver of catastrophic risk, with some experts predicting its potential emergence by 2028. The report outlines various scenarios in which AI could backfire on humans, including cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, large-scale disinformation campaigns, and power-seeking AI systems that are impossible to control.
Is AI an Existential Risk? Q&A with RAND Experts, RAND Corporation, March 11, 2024
This article from the RAND Corporation features a Q&A session with five experts discussing the potential existential risks associated with AI. The panelists explore various risks, such as incremental harms to institutions and society, the exacerbation of inequality, and the misuse of AI in creating bioweapons. They also address the concern that AI might lead to a total system collapse due to the concentration of power and wealth. While opinions on whether AI poses an existential risk vary, the experts agree on the need for robust policy solutions and high-quality independent research to mitigate AI's potential long-term risks.
Two Types of AI Existential Risk: Decisive and Accumulative, Atoosa Kasirzadeh, arXiv preprint, February 6, 2024
This paper introduces two distinct hypotheses regarding the potential pathways through which artificial intelligence (AI) could lead to existential catastrophes: the decisive AI existential risk (x-risk) hypothesis and the accumulative AI x-risk hypothesis. The conventional discourse on AI x-risks typically focuses on the decisive hypothesis, which envisions abrupt, dire events caused by advanced AI systems, such as uncontrollable superintelligence, leading to human extinction or irreversible damage to human civilization. In contrast, the accumulative hypothesis suggests that AI x-risks can manifest incrementally through a series of smaller, interconnected disruptions that gradually cross critical thresholds over time. This pathway involves the gradual accumulation of AI-induced threats, such as severe vulnerabilities and systemic erosion of econopolitical structures, which slowly converge, undermining resilience until a triggering event results in irreversible collapse. The author argues that the accumulative view reconciles seemingly incompatible perspectives on AI risks and emphasizes the importance of integrating this hypothesis into qualitative and quantitative x-risk studies. The paper discusses the implications of differentiating between these two causal pathways for the governance of AI risks and long-term AI safety initiatives, suggesting a reevaluation of existing approaches to AI x-risk management in light of the accumulative hypothesis.
Weighing the Prophecies of AI Doom, Michael Nolan, IEEE Spectrum, January 25, 2024
This IEEE Spectrum article discusses the results of a survey conducted by AI Impacts, which collected responses from 2,788 AI researchers about the potential existential risks of AI. The survey revealed a median prediction of a 5% chance of AI-driven human extinction by 2100. The article highlights concerns over AI's ability to control advanced systems and the possibility of AI creating irreversible societal harms. Critics, such as Nirit Weiss-Blatt, argue that the survey's participant-selection methods are skewed, framing the results as a "well-funded panic campaign." Despite these criticisms, AI Impacts plans to continue adapting their surveys to better address methodological concerns and provide more accurate assessments of AI risks.
Meet the AI Protest Group Campaigning Against Human Extinction, Wired, June 25, 2023
The Wired article discusses the growing concern about the existential risks posed by advanced AI and the need to pause AI development for careful evaluation. It highlights OpenAI's approach to safety and the importance of global cooperation in regulating AI technologies. The article also emphasizes the significance of ethical considerations and the potential for catastrophic outcomes if AI development proceeds without sufficient safeguards. It calls for a responsible and cautious approach to ensure AI benefits humanity without jeopardizing its future.
Does Sam Altman Know What He's Creating?, The Atlantic, July 24, 2023
In a conversation with Sam Altman (CEO of OpenAI, concerns about AI's potential existential threats were discussed. Altman emphasized the importance of taking AI risks seriously, particularly in scenarios where AI could design deadly pathogens or hack into nuclear systems. He advocated for global AI oversight similar to the International Atomic Energy Agency and suggested safety measures like mandatory incident reporting and surveillance of powerful AIs. Altman acknowledged the challenges of international cooperation but stressed the need to prevent catastrophic AI outcomes. The article concludes by highlighting the urgency of public participation in shaping AI's future due to the ongoing, largely unchecked race toward advanced AI technologies.
Meet the AI Protest Group Campaigning Against Human Extinction, Wired, June 25, 2023
The Wired article discusses the growing concern about the existential risks posed by advanced AI and the need to pause AI development for careful evaluation. It highlights OpenAI's approach to safety and the importance of global cooperation in regulating AI technologies. The article also emphasizes the significance of ethical considerations and the potential for catastrophic outcomes if AI development proceeds without sufficient safeguards. It calls for a responsible and cautious approach to ensure AI benefits humanity without jeopardizing its future.
AI Industry Leaders Warn of Potential Existential Risk from Advanced AI, Kevin Roose, The New York Times, May 30, 2023
A group of more than 350 executives, researchers, and engineers working in AI, including leaders from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Anthropic, have signed an open letter warning that AI technology could pose an existential threat to humanity. The statement, released by the Center for AI Safety, asserts that mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks like pandemics and nuclear war. This warning comes amid growing concerns about the potential harms of AI, such as the spread of misinformation, job elimination, and societal disruptions. Some industry leaders argue that AI is improving rapidly and may soon surpass human-level performance in various areas, giving rise to fears of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Signatories of the letter, including Sam Altman of OpenAI, have proposed ways to responsibly manage powerful AI systems, such as cooperation among leading AI makers, increased technical research, and the formation of an international AI safety organization. However, some skeptics argue that AI technology is still too immature to pose an existential threat and are more concerned with short-term issues like biased and incorrect responses.
What Exactly Are the Dangers Posed by A.I.?, New York Times, Cade Metz, May 7, 2023
In late March, over 1,000 tech leaders and AI experts, including Elon Musk, signed an open letter highlighting the "profound risks" posed by AI technologies, urging a six-month halt on developing powerful AI systems to better understand the associated dangers. This move reflects growing concerns within the AI community, particularly around OpenAI's GPT-4 model, which could potentially harm society. Despite the advancements in AI aiding various sectors, experts like Yoshua Bengio express concerns over the unexpected behaviors AI systems might learn from vast data, which could lead to disinformation, job losses, and in extreme cases, loss of control over AI, emphasizing a cautious approach towards AI development and deployment.